Prelims1
Featherweight
Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
·Boardwalk Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Herbert Burns
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
19-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Arce: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 15 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Herbert Burns
35
Sig strikes landed
31
97
Sig strikes attempted
88
59
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
161s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julio Arce
19-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
L2
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
11-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—