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Main Bantamweight

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Bekzat Almakhan

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Umar Nurmagomedov
Bekzat Almakhan
77% 23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
W4
Current streak
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 68 sig / 5 TD · Almakhan: 3 sig / 0 TD
Umar Nurmagomedov
Bekzat Almakhan
41
Sig strikes landed
26
76
Sig strikes attempted
56
62
Total strikes landed
35
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
274s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Umar Nurmagomedov

21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
W UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
Blue corner

Bekzat Almakhan

"The Turan Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26