Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Steve Erceg
38%
62%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 6y
29
17-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-4
L1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Schnell: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Erceg: 34 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Steve Erceg
41
Sig strikes landed
46
104
Sig strikes attempted
101
48
Total strikes landed
70
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
Blue corner
W2
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—