Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Muhammad Mokaev
43%
57%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 8y
24
26-11
Career record
Δ 30 pp
14-0
L2
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perez: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Mokaev: 47 sig / 3 TD
Alex Perez
Muhammad Mokaev
21
Sig strikes landed
26
42
Sig strikes attempted
57
38
Total strikes landed
74
0.2
Takedowns landed
3.1
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
70s
Control time
416s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
69%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W5
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
14-0
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—