Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Cristian Quinonez vs Raoni Barcelos

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cristian Quinonez
Raoni Barcelos
60% 40%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
28
Age
Δ 9y
37
19-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-6
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Quinonez: 29 sig / 2 TD · Barcelos: 43 sig / 2 TD
Cristian Quinonez
Raoni Barcelos
44
Sig strikes landed
40
97
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cristian Quinonez

"Problema"
19-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
Blue corner
L2

Raoni Barcelos

22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—