Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Manuel Torres
Chris Duncan
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
18-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Torres: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Duncan: 1 sig / 1 TD
Manuel Torres
Chris Duncan
47
Sig strikes landed
31
106
Sig strikes attempted
70
50
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Manuel Torres
"El Loco"
18-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—