Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Prelims1 Flyweight

Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonca

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jesus Aguilar
Mateus Mendonca
50% 50%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 9"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
13-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Aguilar: 19 sig / 1 TD · Mendonca: 18 sig / 4 TD
Jesus Aguilar
Mateus Mendonca
32
Sig strikes landed
19
65
Sig strikes attempted
49
46
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
293s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jesus Aguilar

13-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L2

Mateus Mendonca

"Bocao"
10-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—