Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega
67%
33%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
21-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Rodriguez: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortega: 28 sig / 3 TD
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega
83
Sig strikes landed
70
178
Sig strikes attempted
160
91
Total strikes landed
86
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
L2
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—