Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Royval
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
32
23-11-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Moreno: 112 sig / 3 TD ·
Royval: 145 sig / 1 TD
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Royval
63
Sig strikes landed
42
137
Sig strikes attempted
105
82
Total strikes landed
51
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—