Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Drew Dober
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 1y
35
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
30-15
W1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moicano: 23 sig / 3 TD ·
Dober: 23 sig / 1 TD
Renato Moicano
Drew Dober
60
Sig strikes landed
51
116
Sig strikes attempted
114
63
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W1
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
22 fights · 13-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—