Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Benoit Saint Denis
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
30-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W5
29
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Poirier: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Saint Denis: 50 sig / 3 TD
Dustin Poirier
Benoit Saint Denis
52
Sig strikes landed
50
87
Sig strikes attempted
110
69
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
29 fights · 21-7
Last 5
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W5
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—