🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Marlon Vera
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
20-3
Career record
Δ 22 pp
24-12-1
W5
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
O'Malley: 230 sig / 0 TD ·
Vera: 89 sig / 0 TD
Sean O'Malley
Marlon Vera
104
Sig strikes landed
72
181
Sig strikes attempted
150
114
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
22 fights · 15-7
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—