Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Song Yadong
52%
48%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
20-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-9-1
L3
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yan: 99 sig / 2 TD ·
Yadong: 86 sig / 1 TD
Petr Yan
Song Yadong
64
Sig strikes landed
72
134
Sig strikes attempted
186
88
Total strikes landed
92
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.0
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
122s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W2
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
24-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
13 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—