Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Jack Della Maddalena
34%
66%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
38
Age
Δ 10y
28
22-11
Career record
Δ 16 pp
19-4
L1
Current streak
W6
21
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Burns: 27 sig / 7 TD ·
Della Maddalena: 67 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Jack Della Maddalena
46
Sig strikes landed
64
105
Sig strikes attempted
119
55
Total strikes landed
73
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
126s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 15-6
Last 5
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
W6
Jack Della Maddalena
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—