Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Jailton Almeida
42%
58%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
19-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
W6
17
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blaydes: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 1 sig / 9 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Jailton Almeida
18
Sig strikes landed
28
40
Sig strikes attempted
54
43
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
316s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W6
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—