Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
CJ Vergara
Asu Almabayev
17%
83%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
13-7-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
24-3
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vergara: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Almabayev: 44 sig / 9 TD
CJ Vergara
Asu Almabayev
26
Sig strikes landed
41
47
Sig strikes attempted
83
37
Total strikes landed
59
0.3
Takedowns landed
3.1
0.7
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
28s
Control time
305s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
CJ Vergara
13-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—