Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mateusz Gamrot
Rafael Dos Anjos
82%
18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
33
Age
Δ 6y
39
27-4
Career record
Δ 23 pp
32-18
W2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gamrot: 57 sig / 11 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 36 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Gamrot
Rafael Dos Anjos
44
Sig strikes landed
34
97
Sig strikes attempted
71
69
Total strikes landed
70
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
329s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rafael Dos Anjos
32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
31 fights · 20-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—