Back to UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Zac Pauga vs Bogdan Guskov

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zac Pauga
Bogdan Guskov
32% 68%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
7-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-4-1
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pauga: 17 sig / 0 TD · Guskov: 10 sig / 0 TD
Zac Pauga
Bogdan Guskov
33
Sig strikes landed
38
67
Sig strikes attempted
75
48
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
107s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Zac Pauga

"The High Chief"
7-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
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W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
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Blue corner
L1

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
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