Prelims1
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger vs Preston Parsons
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
Preston Parsons
50%
50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
11-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-7
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Semelsberger: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Parsons: 47 sig / 7 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
Preston Parsons
47
Sig strikes landed
47
103
Sig strikes attempted
102
59
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
Blue corner
L1
Preston Parsons
"Pressure"
11-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—