Back to UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Main Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Waldo Cortes Acosta
26% 74%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
45
Age
Δ 13y
32
34-25
Career record
Δ 28 pp
18-3
L2
Current streak
W1
26
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 58 sig / 0 TD · Cortes Acosta: 49 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Waldo Cortes Acosta
53
Sig strikes landed
70
115
Sig strikes attempted
136
66
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
57s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 26 fights · 13-12
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
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Blue corner
W1

Waldo Cortes Acosta

"Salsa Boy"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
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L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
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W UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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