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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Marcus McGhee vs Gaston Bolanos

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marcus McGhee
Gaston Bolanos
67% 33%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
11-2
Career record
Δ 20 pp
9-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
McGhee: 65 sig / 1 TD · Bolanos: 28 sig / 0 TD
Marcus McGhee
Gaston Bolanos
35
Sig strikes landed
27
80
Sig strikes attempted
57
49
Total strikes landed
33
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
95s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Marcus McGhee

"The Maniac"
11-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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Blue corner
W1

Gaston Bolanos

"The Dreamkiller"
9-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…