Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Brunno Ferreira
42%
58%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
12-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
15-4
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hawes: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 19 sig / 1 TD
Phil Hawes
Brunno Ferreira
30
Sig strikes landed
25
52
Sig strikes attempted
48
44
Total strikes landed
35
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
12-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
15-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—