Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Mario Bautista
59%
41%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W5
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simon: 45 sig / 2 TD ·
Bautista: 112 sig / 0 TD
Ricky Simon
Mario Bautista
40
Sig strikes landed
45
99
Sig strikes attempted
93
55
Total strikes landed
57
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ricky Simon
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
W5
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—