Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Gabriel Benitez
78%
22%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
40
Age
Δ 5y
36
40-19
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-13
W1
Current streak
W1
37
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Miller: 80 sig / 2 TD ·
Benitez: 80 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Gabriel Benitez
36
Sig strikes landed
57
79
Sig strikes attempted
101
45
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
-0.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
37 fights · 21-15
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
Blue corner
W1
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
24-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—