Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Sumudaerji
37%
63%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
22-15-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Elliott: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Sumudaerji: 10 sig / 0 TD
Tim Elliott
Sumudaerji
41
Sig strikes landed
57
98
Sig strikes attempted
118
62
Total strikes landed
66
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
187s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 8-11
Last 5
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
19-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—