Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Jamie Mullarkey
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-9
W2
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Haqparast: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Mullarkey: 8 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Jamie Mullarkey
67
Sig strikes landed
62
151
Sig strikes attempted
151
76
Total strikes landed
73
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
59s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jamie Mullarkey
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—