Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuro Taira
Carlos Hernandez
90%
10%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
19-2
Career record
Δ 22 pp
11-5
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Taira: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Hernandez: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuro Taira
Carlos Hernandez
50
Sig strikes landed
32
105
Sig strikes attempted
81
68
Total strikes landed
43
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
341s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
19-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Hernandez
11-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—