Back to UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Rayanne dos Santos vs Talita Alencar

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Rayanne dos Santos
Talita Alencar
60% 40%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 4"
58"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
dos Santos: 57 sig / 0 TD · Alencar: 36 sig / 1 TD
Rayanne dos Santos
Talita Alencar
39
Sig strikes landed
37
88
Sig strikes attempted
80
70
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rayanne dos Santos

0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Talita Alencar

"Problem Child"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33