Back to UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Junior Tafa

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria ·Honda Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Junior Tafa
65% 35%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
39
Age
Δ 11y
27
22-11-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rogerio de Lima: 33 sig / 1 TD · Tafa: 11 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Junior Tafa
29
Sig strikes landed
20
49
Sig strikes attempted
43
44
Total strikes landed
34
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

"Pezao"
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
Blue corner
W1

Junior Tafa

"The Juggernaut"
8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—