Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Carlos Vera
69%
31%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nakamura: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Vera: 12 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Carlos Vera
28
Sig strikes landed
17
59
Sig strikes attempted
28
47
Total strikes landed
32
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
207s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
Carlos Vera
"Pequeno"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36