Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Amanda Lemos
Mackenzie Dern
42%
58%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
15-7-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lemos: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Dern: 21 sig / 1 TD
Amanda Lemos
Mackenzie Dern
40
Sig strikes landed
48
78
Sig strikes attempted
101
67
Total strikes landed
77
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
251s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Amanda Lemos
15-7-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mackenzie Dern
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—