Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Oban Elliott
Val Woodburn
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 70 sig / 3 TD ·
Woodburn: 23 sig / 2 TD
Oban Elliott
Val Woodburn
42
Sig strikes landed
22
83
Sig strikes attempted
59
60
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
150s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Oban Elliott
"The Welsh Gangster"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1
Val Woodburn
"The Animal"
7-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
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