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Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Andrea Lee vs Miranda Maverick

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrea Lee
Miranda Maverick
23% 77%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
13-12
Career record
Δ 23 pp
18-6
L3
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lee: 36 sig / 2 TD · Maverick: 66 sig / 3 TD
Andrea Lee
Miranda Maverick
52
Sig strikes landed
63
108
Sig strikes attempted
130
74
Total strikes landed
94
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
251s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Andrea Lee

"KGB"
13-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Blue corner
W1

Miranda Maverick

"Fear The"
18-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
L UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier