Back to UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
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Zhang Mingyang vs Brendson Ribeiro

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Zhang Mingyang
Brendson Ribeiro
66% 34%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
26
Age
Δ 2y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mingyang: 17 sig / 0 TD · Ribeiro: 14 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Mingyang
Brendson Ribeiro
38
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
82
54
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Zhang Mingyang

"Mountain Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Brendson Ribeiro

"The Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27