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Main Middleweight

Chris Curtis vs Marc-Andre Barriault

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Marc-Andre Barriault
81% 19%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 3y
34
32-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Curtis: 140 sig / 0 TD · Barriault: 122 sig / 0 TD
Chris Curtis
Marc-Andre Barriault
68
Sig strikes landed
73
139
Sig strikes attempted
154
79
Total strikes landed
90
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Chris Curtis

"Action-Man"
32-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
W UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
W UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Blue corner
W2

Marc-Andre Barriault

"Powerbar"
18-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…