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Prelims1 Welterweight

Wellington Turman vs Jared Gooden

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan ·Moody Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Wellington Turman
Jared Gooden
48% 52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
18-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-11
L2
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Turman: 37 sig / 1 TD · Gooden: 53 sig / 1 TD
Wellington Turman
Jared Gooden
51
Sig strikes landed
51
112
Sig strikes attempted
99
71
Total strikes landed
74
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
246s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Wellington Turman

"The Prodigy"
18-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
L2

Jared Gooden

"NiteTrain"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—