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Main Middleweight

Punahele Soriano vs Dustin Stoltzfus

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan ·Moody Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Punahele Soriano
Dustin Stoltzfus
66% 34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
13-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Soriano: 31 sig / 0 TD · Stoltzfus: 64 sig / 4 TD
Punahele Soriano
Dustin Stoltzfus
41
Sig strikes landed
38
76
Sig strikes attempted
87
53
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Punahele Soriano

"Puna"
13-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
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Blue corner
L1

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
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L UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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