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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan ·Moody Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Julia Avila
62% 38%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
37
Age
Δ 2y
36
20-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tate: 32 sig / 4 TD · Avila: 3 sig / 0 TD
Miesha Tate
Julia Avila
47
Sig strikes landed
43
94
Sig strikes attempted
92
72
Total strikes landed
69
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
243s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Miesha Tate

"Cupcake"
20-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
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L UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
W1

Julia Avila

"Raging Panda"
10-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
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L UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—