Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Joaquim Silva
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
42
Age
Δ 7y
35
38-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Silva: 46 sig / 2 TD
Clay Guida
Joaquim Silva
29
Sig strikes landed
56
97
Sig strikes attempted
95
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
213s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
25 fights · 13-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
14-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—