Back to UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Main Welterweight

Sean Brady vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan ·Moody Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sean Brady
Kelvin Gastelum
77% 23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-3
Career record
Δ 20 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
21

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brady: 14 sig / 5 TD · Gastelum: 18 sig / 0 TD
Sean Brady
Kelvin Gastelum
59
Sig strikes landed
54
128
Sig strikes attempted
125
86
Total strikes landed
73
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
220s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sean Brady

19-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1

Kelvin Gastelum

22-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—