Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Bryce Mitchell
37%
63%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
39
Age
Δ 10y
29
19-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-4
L2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Emmett: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitchell: 0 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Bryce Mitchell
44
Sig strikes landed
45
99
Sig strikes attempted
106
53
Total strikes landed
79
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
7.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
85s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—