Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Paddy Pimblett
31%
69%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
40
Age
Δ 11y
29
26-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
24-4
L6
Current streak
W4
22
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferguson: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Pimblett: 106 sig / 1 TD
Tony Ferguson
Paddy Pimblett
58
Sig strikes landed
55
116
Sig strikes attempted
118
67
Total strikes landed
81
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
40s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L6
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
22 fights · 15-7
Last 5
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W4
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—