Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Andre Fili
Lucas Almeida
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
25-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Fili: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 10 sig / 0 TD
Andre Fili
Lucas Almeida
51
Sig strikes landed
47
119
Sig strikes attempted
97
65
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
102s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
25-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
20 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
Blue corner
L1
Lucas Almeida
15-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—