Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tagir Ulanbekov
Cody Durden
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
18-3
Career record
Δ 22 pp
19-10-1
W1
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ulanbekov: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Durden: 32 sig / 0 TD
Tagir Ulanbekov
Cody Durden
34
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
78
64
Total strikes landed
51
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
236s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tagir Ulanbekov
18-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W4
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
19-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—