Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Martin Buday
Shamil Gaziev
64%
36%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
W4
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Buday: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaziev: 49 sig / 0 TD
Martin Buday
Shamil Gaziev
55
Sig strikes landed
37
97
Sig strikes attempted
87
69
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Martin Buday
"Badys"
17-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
Shamil Gaziev
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34