Back to UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Brian Kelleher
62% 38%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
16-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
24-17
W1
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
15

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garbrandt: 20 sig / 0 TD · Kelleher: 17 sig / 0 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Brian Kelleher
37
Sig strikes landed
36
90
Sig strikes attempted
87
45
Total strikes landed
45
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
Blue corner
L2

Brian Kelleher

"Boom"
24-17
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database 15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—