Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill vs Ariane da Silva
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey O'Neill
Ariane da Silva
76%
24%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
11-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
O'Neill: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
da Silva: 64 sig / 1 TD
Casey O'Neill
Ariane da Silva
80
Sig strikes landed
67
155
Sig strikes attempted
139
105
Total strikes landed
91
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
18-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—