Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Irene Aldana
Karol Rosa
32%
68%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
15-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldana: 145 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosa: 204 sig / 0 TD
Irene Aldana
Karol Rosa
68
Sig strikes landed
77
154
Sig strikes attempted
141
89
Total strikes landed
98
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Irene Aldana
15-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W1
Karol Rosa
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—