Main
Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Stephen Thompson
91%
9%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 12y
41
20-0
Career record
Δ 36 pp
18-9-1
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Rakhmonov: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Thompson: 16 sig / 0 TD
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Stephen Thompson
71
Sig strikes landed
47
123
Sig strikes attempted
98
104
Total strikes landed
56
3.5
Takedowns landed
-0.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
264s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
19 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—