🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Royval
88%
12%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
31-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-9
W4
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Pantoja: 95 sig / 8 TD ·
Royval: 111 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Royval
55
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
99
69
Total strikes landed
45
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
214s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
W3
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—